The Urban Development Potential in Major Bay Areas: A Combined Hierarchical and Entropy-Based Evaluation

The coastal regions of major bay areas—including San Francisco, Tokyo, New York, Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao, and Hangzhou—are important centers of economic and social growth due to their strategic location, resources, and dynamic economies. However, the significant development disparities between the central cities and surrounding areas, as well as the challenges of climate change, highlight the need for a comprehensive assessment of their development potential. The aim of this study is to find out which cities have the strongest development potential and what the main factors influencing the results are. To address this research question, we use a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to systematically assess the development potential of 63 cities in five bay area regions and explore the mechanisms that influence it. The principal component analysis (PCA) also examines the global networking and sustainability mechanisms. The results show that Shenzhen and Shanghai lead in development potential due to strong institutional frameworks and global connectivity, but significant imbalances remain in the bay areas. Key contributors to sustainability and connectivity include air passenger traffic, public libraries, and port handling, while traditional economic metrics such as GDP growth show limited impact. These findings underscore the importance of prioritizing urban livability, resource circulation, and infrastructure over traditional economic indicators for sustainability and provide actionable insights for policy makers to promote balanced and sustainable development in bay area cities.