The evolution of urban employment spatial structure in China: From the perspective of monocentricity and polycentricity

Understanding the evolution of the urban spatial structure is of great significance for clarifying the stage and trajectory of urban development and formulating future urban development plans. Given that previous studies have marginally explored the long-term evolution of the urban employment spatial structure, this paper proposes a theoretical model hypothesizing five sequential stages of a complete evolution cycle from the perspective of mono- and polycentricity: mono-centralization, main-centralization, multi-centralization, de-centralization and re-centralization. Further empirical results based on 292 prefecture-level cities in China from 1997 to 2017 support the model and demonstrate that most cities present an evolution in line with the hypothesis, except a few cities experiencing short-term fluctuations, and approximately 60 % of cities are in the stage of multi-centralization, where subcenters have a growth advantage, and the main center has a scale advantage. Additionally, this paper reveals two characteristics of the evolution of the urban employment spatial structure in China: spatiotemporal compression and government intervention.