The effect of the two-child policy on cesarean section in China: Identification using difference-in-differences techniques

Background: China has one of the highest rates of cesarean section in the world. One of the possible reasons for such high rates was China's one-child policy. Relaxation of the one-child policy might be associated with a reduction in the rate of cesarean section. Objectives: To assess the effect of China's universal two-child policy on cesarean section rates using patient-level data from one large municipal-level obstetrics and gynecology hospital in Shanghai, East China. Data sources: The study used inpatient hospital records data on all infants delivered between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2018 at the Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital, which is one of the largest obstetrical hospitals in China. Study design: A quantitative study design with difference-in-differences (DID) estimation techniques were used to control for socio-economic and health-related factors in order to identify the impact of the universal two-child policy on cesarean section rates in China. Moreover, DID analysis stratified by maternal migrant status and age were conducted. Results: Analysis of 133,358 deliveries suggests that China's universal two-child policy resulted in a statistically significant reduction in cesarean section rates from 49.5 to 43.3 per 100 deliveries over the study period. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the significant reduction in cesarean section rates may be due to a shift in health risk perceptions resulting from the relaxation of the one-child policy when mothers consider the possibility of having a second child. Health education on the risk of repeat cesarean section in pregnant women should be enhanced.