Talent Migration Across China's Urban Hierarchy: Spatial Pattern and the Effect of Housing Pressure

Talent migration across urban hierarchy has emerged as a critical policy concern in China and the world. Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2017–2018), this study investigates the spatial patterns of talent migration across urban hierarchy and examines the effect of housing pressure on cross-hierarchical mobility. The results show that talent migration exhibits an upward pattern across the urban hierarchy, with skilled workers moving towards higher-tier cities. Migration flows are concentrated within urban agglomeration areas and are largely intra-provincial, with a tendency to converge on provincial capitals and regional centre cities. Third, housing pressure exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on cross-hierarchical talent migration, indicating that moderate housing costs stimulate upward mobility while excessive pressure suppresses it. Moreover, highly educated and skilled migrants are disproportionately sensitive to housing pressure, reflecting their stronger propensity to pursue homeownership. These findings suggest the need for regionally differentiated policies that simultaneously address housing affordability and invest in human capital to facilitate talent mobility.