Spatiotemporal distribution and inter-media transfer of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Shanghai, China: Historical patterns and future trends

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent pervasive pollutants, posing health risks in urban environments. It is essential to comprehend the spatiotemporal distributions, composition profiles, and inter-media transfer processes of PAHs in various environmental compartments, influenced by both natural changes and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates historical and future spatiotemporally changing environmental parameters, including climate data, GDP, population data, land-use types, and hydrological variables, into the Multimedia Urban Model (MUM). This integration enables the simulation of spatiotemporal distributions and inter-media transfer fluxes of PAHs among six different media from the 2010s to the 2100s under two distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai, China. The MUM model, featuring diverse gridded parameters, effectively captures PAH concentrations and movement across environmental compartments. Results indicate a decreasing trend in PAHs concentrations in the 2100s compared to the 2010s, with PAH concentrations in water, sediment, vegetation, and organic film covering impermeable surfaces under the SSP3–7.0 scenario higher than those of the SSP1–2.6 scenario. Low molecular weight PAHs dominate in the sediment, water, and air, whereas high molecular weight PAHs prevail in the organic film, vegetation, and soil. Sediment and soil serve as the predominant sinks for PAHs. The primary transport processes for PAH movement include air-film, air-soil, film-water, soil-air, and water-air. Almost all transfer fluxes exhibit a declining trend in future periods except for the air-film transport pathway. The principal input and removal routes for PAHs in Shanghai involve the advection of air and water. The study provides essential insights into the environmental behavior of PAHs and informs targeted pollution control in Shanghai. Additionally, it serves as a technical reference for similar pollution prediction research.