Spatial scaling of mountain pine beetle infestations

1. The relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion during the spread of eruptive and invasive species demands greater study, as it could lead to improved prediction of ecosystem damage. 2. We applied a recently developed model that links occupancy and its fractal dimension to model the spatial distribution of mountain pine beetle infestations in British Columbia, Canada. We showed that the distribution of infestation was scale-invariant in at least 24 out of 37 years (mostly in epidemic years), and presented some degree of scale-invariance in the rest. There was a general logarithmic relationship between fractal dimension and infestation occupancy. Based on the scale-invariance assumption, we further assessed the interrelationships for several landscape metrics, such as correlation length, maximum cluster size, total edge length and total number of clusters. 3. The scale-invariance assumption allows fitting the above metrics, and provides a framework to establish the scaling relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion. 4. We concluded that scale-invariance dominates the spread of mountain pine beetle. In this context, spatial aggregation can be predicted from occupancy, hence occupancy is the only variable one needs to know in order to predict the spatial distributions of populations. This supports the hypothesis that fractal dispersal kernels may be abundant among outbreaks of pests and invasive species.