Simulating compact urban form using cellular automata (CA) and multi-criteria evaluation: A case study in Dongguan

Rapid urbanization has caused a series of problems. This paper presents a cellular automaton model based on multi-criteria evaluation (MCE-CA) in an attempt to simulate compact urban forms. Local conditions for development and suitability for agriculture are taken into account. The AHP method is used to determine the weights of each factor. Dongguan in Guangdong Province, China, is selected as the case study area. The model is implemented to simulate the urban growth from 2001 to 2005. The simulation result is validated using the observed distribution of urban area in 2005. Then, the urban forms in 2010 and 2020 are predicted based on historical trend. Moreover, the weights of factors are shifted to further simulate the compact urban forms. The comparison between the predicted urban form and the compact urban form in 2020 indicates that the latter significantly prevents the fragmentation of development and reduces the loss of agricultural land of good quality.