Relationship Between Built-Up Spatial Pattern, Green Space Morphology and Carbon Sequestration at the Community Scale: A Case Study of Shanghai

Enhancing the carbon sequestration (CS) capacity of urban green spaces is crucial for mitigating global warming, environmental degradation, and urbanisation-induced issues. This study focuses on the urban community unit to establish a system of determining factors for the CS capacity of green space, considering the built-up spatial pattern and green space morphology. An interpretable machine learning approach (Random Forest + Shapley Additive exPlanations) is employed to systematically analyse the non-linear relationship of built-up spatial pattern and green space morphology factors. Results demonstrate significant urban zonal heterogeneity in green space CS, whereas southern suburban area communities exhibited higher capacity. In terms of green space morphology factors, higher fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and cohesion were positively correlated with green space CS capacity. Leaf area index (LAI), canopy density (CD), and the evergreen-broadleaf forest ratio additionally further enhanced the positive effect of two-dimensional green space factors on CS. For built-up spatial pattern factors, communities with a high green space ratio and low development intensity exhibited higher CS capacity. And the optimal ranges of FVC, LAI and CD for effective facilitation of community green space CS were identified as 0.6–0.75, 4.85–5.5 and 0.68–0.7, respectively. Moreover, cohesion, LAI and CD bolstered the CS capacity in communities with a high building density and plot ratio. This study provides a rational basis for planning and layout of green space patterns to enhance CS efficiency at the urban community scale.