Reexamining Push-Pull Theory in Residential Mobility under State Entrepreneurial Urbanism: Mobile Phone Evidence from Shanghai

The push-pull framework remains a useful lens for residential mobility, yet its classic formulation presumes largely market-generated opportunity gradients. In China's state entrepreneurial urbanism, however, these gradients are actively (re)produced through state-led redevelopment, land-based development, and uneven infrastructure provision, potentially reshaping how “push” and “pull” operate across space. Leveraging mobile phone signaling data from Shanghai amid concurrent suburban new-town expansion and inner-city renewal, this study develops an institutionally informed push–pull analytical framework to examine how employment-related factors and residential environmental conditions jointly correlate with relocation decisions. We compare drivers across mobility types by distinguishing inward versus outward moves and short-versus long-distance relocations. Results show that suburban development has not eroded the continuing pull of the urban core, while mobility patterns are most consistently associated with employment opportunities, housing availability/affordability, and access to green space. Clear heterogeneity emerges across direction–distance combinations: long-distance inward moves are more strongly associated with improved job-housing proximity and richer urban facilities, whereas long-distance outward moves correlate more with lower housing prices and greener environments. Short-distance outward moves are linked to incremental improvements in housing conditions and nearby green space. By foregrounding institutionally produced opportunity gradients and direction-distance contingencies, this study reexamines the push–pull framework in Chinese megacities and offers policy-relevant implications for coordinating employment, housing, and environmental planning during urban renewal and suburban development.