Prediction on ecological water demand in Chongming Island based on system dynamics

Based on the analysis of present ecological water demand in Chongming Island of Shanghai, and with the methods of system dynamics, this paper predicted and stimulated the ecological water demand in the Island in 2005-2020. The results showed that in 2010, 2015 and 2020, the ecological water demand would be 12.05, 14.56 and 16.99 hundred million cubic meters, accounting for 35.86%, 43.33% and 55. 57% of the total local water resources, respectively. In the ecological water demand, forest and river would take a great portion while urban green land would occupy the least. In the three forecasted years of 2010, 2015 and 2020, the ecological water demand of forest would be 53.44%, 56.87% and 59.56% of the total, while that of river and urban green land would be 26.31%, 22.32% and 19.48%, and 1.33%, 2.47% and 2.94%, respectively.