Physical control of the distributions of a key Arctic copepod in the Northeast Chukchi Sea

The Chukchi Sea is a highly advective regime dominated by a barotropically driven northward flow modulated by wind driven currents that reach the bottom boundary layer of this shallow environment. A general northward gradient of decreasing temperature and food concentration leads to geographically divergent copepod growth and development rates between north and south. The physics of this system establish the biological connection potential between specific regions. The copepod Calanus glacialis is a key grazer, predator, and food source in Arctic shelf seas. Its summer distribution and abundance have direct effects on much of the food web, from phytoplankton to migrating bowhead whales. In August 2012 and 2013, C. glacialis distributions were quantified over Hanna Shoal in the northeast Chukchi Sea. Here an individual-based model with Lagrangian tracking and copepod life stage development capabilities is used to advect and develop these distributions forward and backward in time to determine the source (production locations) and sink (potential overwintering locations) regions of the transient Hanna Shoal C. glacialis population. Hanna Shoal supplies diapause competent C. glacialis to both the Beaufort Slope and the Chukchi Cap, mainly receives juveniles from the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley and receives second year adults from as far south as the Anadyr Gulf and as near as the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley. The 2013 sink region was shifted west relative to the 2012 region and the 2013 adult source region was shifted north relative to the 2012 adult source region. These connection potentials were not sensitive to precise times and locations of release, but were quite sensitive to depth of release. These patterns demonstrate how interannual differences in the physical conditions well south of Hanna Shoal play a critical role in determining the abundance and distribution of a key food source over Hanna Shoal and in the southern Beaufort Sea.