TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimal inference of the start of COVID-19
AU - Zhai, Zheng Meng
AU - Long, Yong Shang
AU - Tang, Ming
AU - Liu, Zonghua
AU - Lai, Ying Cheng
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 authors. Published by the American Physical Society. Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.
PY - 2021/2/17
Y1 - 2021/2/17
N2 - According to the official report, the first case of COVID-19 and the first death in the United States occurred on January 20 and February 29, 2020, respectively. On April 21, California reported that the first death in the state occurred on February 6, implying that community spreading of COVID-19 might have started earlier than previously thought. Exactly what is time zero, i.e., when did COVID-19 emerge and begin to spread in the U.S. and other countries? We develop a comprehensive predictive modeling framework to address this question. Using available data of confirmed infections to obtain the optimal values of the key parameters, we validate the model and demonstrate its predictive power. We then carry out an inverse inference analysis to determine time zero for 10 representative states in the U.S., plus New York City, United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. The main finding is that, in both the U.S. and Europe, COVID-19 started around the new year day.
AB - According to the official report, the first case of COVID-19 and the first death in the United States occurred on January 20 and February 29, 2020, respectively. On April 21, California reported that the first death in the state occurred on February 6, implying that community spreading of COVID-19 might have started earlier than previously thought. Exactly what is time zero, i.e., when did COVID-19 emerge and begin to spread in the U.S. and other countries? We develop a comprehensive predictive modeling framework to address this question. Using available data of confirmed infections to obtain the optimal values of the key parameters, we validate the model and demonstrate its predictive power. We then carry out an inverse inference analysis to determine time zero for 10 representative states in the U.S., plus New York City, United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. The main finding is that, in both the U.S. and Europe, COVID-19 started around the new year day.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85105038669
U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013155
DO - 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013155
M3 - 文章
AN - SCOPUS:85105038669
SN - 2643-1564
VL - 3
JO - Physical Review Research
JF - Physical Review Research
IS - 1
M1 - 013155
ER -