Increased productivity of temperate vegetation in the preceding year drives early spring phenology in the subsequent year in northern China

Under global warming, rising temperature have advanced spring phenology in recent decades. However, the internal physiological mechanisms driving changes in spring phenology still remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of temperate vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) during the preceding year on spring phenology of the subsequent year based on the start of growing season (SOS) extracted from NDVI datasets between 1982 and 2015. We found that the preceding year's GPP had an effect on the subsequent year's SOS, equivalent to 33 %–50 % of effect of the preseason's mean temperature. Specifically, in the temperate and semi-humid or humid conditions, the preceding year's GPP had a stronger effect on SOS than in boreal or semi-arid conditions. In addition, the SOS of the dwarf vegetation, with less transport pressure and higher carbon concentrations, was more sensitive to the preceding year's GPP than that of tall forests. We found the effects of the preceding year's GPP on SOS varied with space and vegetation types. Therefore, the physiological mechanism should be considered in future spring phenology model separately according to space and vegetation types, to improve the accuracy of future phenology and then global carbon sequestration predictions.