Global monetary policy shocks and the adaptation of supply chains

This paper examines how global monetary policy shocks (MPS) transmitted through trade networks affect supply chain adaptation of Chinese firms. When exposed to higher supplier-side MPS, firms experience significantly higher separation rates and lower foreign entry rates. Our findings remain robust across a range of alternative MPS measures. In response, firms shift their sourcing from high-interest-rate countries to low-interest-rate countries, but they do not re-shore. We show that trade credit and price adjustment by suppliers are important for explaining the restructuring. The disruption is more likely driven by customer decisions. Moreover, heterogeneities show that firms with stricter credit constraints are more sensitive to MPS, while longer-duration supply chain relationships show greater resilience. The supply chain adaptation induced by MPS also leads to adverse real economic outcomes for imports, exports, and profitability.