Distributions of two native ungulates at the third pole are highly sensitive to global warming

The conservation of native species through the establishment and management of nature reserves needs to take into account the effects of anticipated climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to obtain key information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of species distributions, which is crucial for management strategies. For two ungulates native to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata) and Kiang (Equus kiang), we developed a novel two-step SDM framework with an intermediate step that quantifies the suitability of grassland habitats as essential food availability in the Three River Sources Region (TRSR). We then applied the multi-model inference and bootstrapping techniques to improve accuracy and to estimate uncertainty. We found the best models of grassland suitability included growth degree days, aridity, and topographical roughness as predictors; while common predictors of ungulate distributions included grassland suitability, coldest month temperature, and topographical roughness. The potential ranges of both ungulates will gradually move westward, northward, and upward in the TRSR under two climate change scenarios (SSR245 and SSR585). Within current local reserve boundaries in the TRSR, two focal ungulates would nearly go local extinction in the end of this century in SSR585. However, the northwest corner of the TRSR would become a new distribution center in SSR245 and deserves a higher priority for conservation. In addition to a greenhouse gas reduction agenda to curb the warming trend, our findings advocate adaptive management practices regarding spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife distributions to prevent the extinction of native species and to increase resilience to climate change.