Decomposing the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanghai using the LMDI method

Knowledge of influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions (ICE) is crucial to the efforts of reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, main factors responsible for the ICE in Shanghai between 1996 and 2007 were identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Log-Mean Divisia Index method. It was found that the industrial output was the main driving force of ICE. The decline in energy intensity and the adjustment of energy and industrial structure are major determinants for reduction of ICE, with the former alone accounting for 90% of the reduction. To better investigate the relative contribution of different industrial sectors and their changes over time, we divided the study period into two equal time intervals and analyzed some high-carbon emission sectors. The results suggested that the intensity of energy use should be reduced further, for it was far higher than the world average. Adjustment of industrial structure by developing low-carbon emission industries is more crucial than energy mix.