Coupling water-carbon-ecological footprints to optimize land use pattern for sustainable development goals in metropolitan area

Ensuring cities and human settlements are inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable is a key objective of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11, one of the 17 goals outlined by the United Nations. Beyond the proposed indicators of SDG 11, the dimensions of resources, environment, and ecology should be assessed and optimized for sustainable urban development. This research examined the spatio-temporal patterns of water, carbon, and ecological footprints to highlight the pressure on resources, the environment, and the ecosystem within the Pearl River Delta (PRD) metropolitan area. Using a multi-objective optimization method and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we identified the optimal land use pattern for 2030 based on predicted footprints. The findings reveal that ecological stress and greenhouse gas emissions are the main contributors to resource and environmental pressure in the PRD, with these pressures showing an upward trend. In comparison to the Natural development (ND) scenario, land-use patterns under the Sustainable Resource and Environmental Development (SD) scenario exhibit a superior balance between economic benefits and the coordinated development of resources and the environment. This makes the SD scenario more favorable for achieving SDGs for the PRD urban agglomeration. This study integrates information from resource and environmental aspects to assess and optimize urban land-use patterns, thereby providing a more comprehensive and holistic scientific foundation for urban sustainable development.