Assessing the effectiveness of China's protected areas to conserve current and future amphibian diversity

Aim: Protected areas are an important tool for conserving species. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of protected areas to conserve amphibian biodiversity in response to future changes in climate and land use. Location: China. Methods: Range maps and occurrence records of amphibian species in China were analysed separately using ensemble species distribution modelling across three spatial scales to assess scale dependency. Climate velocity and corresponding residence time in protected areas and species’ ranges were calculated, together with a number of other effectiveness indices. Results: Predicted declines in amphibian richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic endemism and suitable habitat were lower in protected than in unprotected areas, complementary-priority sites or richness hotspots. However, less-disturbed amphibian habitat, calculated from current and future projected land use data, in both protected and unprotected areas were consistently lost over time although this reduction was lower in protected areas. Although residence time of precipitation was longer in protected areas and within species’ ranges in protected areas, resident time of temperature was significantly shorter in both. These results were consistent regardless of data sources and spatial scales. Main conclusions: China's current protected areas are predicted to maintain future amphibian distribution and diversity, but are insufficient in preventing the losses of suitable climate and areas of less-disturbed habitat. The top 10% of future conservation gaps for amphibians were identified in China based on performance of effectiveness indices. The two largest gaps prioritized for future protected areas include the southern parts of Tibet and the Hengduan Mountains.