Analyzing land-use change in farming-pastoral transitional region using autologistic model and household survey approach

Land change science (LCS) strives to understand and model land-use change, which will further advance the understanding of multiple issues in the socio-ecological systems. Based on GIS/RS techniques, autologistic model, and household survey method, this study investigated major land use changes and their causes from 1978 to 2008 in Uxin Banner (county-level), Inner Mongolia in China and then developed an understanding of the relationships between household livelihood and land-use pattern. Results showed that cultivated land increased from 1988 to 2000, and leveled off after 2000. Built-up land increased stably for the period 1978-2008. The change of grassland and bare land differed among the three periods. From 1978 to 1988, grassland increased by 23.3%, and bare land decreased by 20.48%. From 1988 to 2000, bare land expanded by 1.7%, but grassland declined by 1.3%. From 2000 to 2008, an increase in grassland area by 1.8% was observed, but a decrease in bare land area by 9.0% was witnessed. The autologistic models performed better than logistic models as indicated by lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. Factors associated with human activities significantly correlated with the change of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and built-up land. The produce prices and extensive cultivated land use are major issues in the farming area. This study suggests that completing land circulation systems and maintaining the stability of price are effective solutions. By contrast, reclamation and overgrazing are major concerns in the pastoral areas. Implementing environmental policies effectively, transferring population out of rural pastoral areas, and developing modern animal husbandry are effective ways to address these issues.