Affective forecasting in people with autistic traits, social anhedonia, and subthreshold depression: a multi-method study

The ability to predict future emotions for upcoming events (affective forecasting, AF) is crucial for mental health. This study compared the distinct and shared characteristics of AF in participants with high levels of autistic traits (AT, n = 76), social anhedonia (SA, n = 107), subthreshold depression (SD, n = 102), and 99 controls. Participants completed the laboratory-based and real-life AF tasks, and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging. Compared with controls, the AT group reported fewer mental simulation details in the laboratory-based task, and the SA group displayed less anticipated pleasure and fewer mental simulation details in both laboratory-based and real-life AF tasks, whereas the SD group showed relatively intact AF. The three subclinical groups showed larger AF bias than controls. Moreover, the three subclinical groups showed altered functional connectivity (FC) compared with controls, and the altered FC was associated with laboratory-based and real-life AF performance. These findings advance our understanding of early identification and prevention strategies of transdiagnostic populations.