1950—2022年国际制裁的空间演化与多维效应

The current political and economic landscape is undergoing numerous structural adjustments, and international sanctions are increasingly spreading. This study utilizes the Global Sanctions Database to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of international sanctions, as well as their multidimensional effects on target countries and regions between 1950 and 2022, by integrating various types of sanctions into a unified analytical framework. The findings are as follows: (1) The number of global sanctions increased from 188 in 1950 to 12,246 in 2022, particularly exhibiting a significant surge during the post-Cold War period. (2) The spatial distribution of international sanctions aligns closely with the Brandt Line. During the Cold War, the US camp initiated approximately 70% of sanctions, but post-Cold War countries and regions in the Global North accounted for about 90% of sanctions. (3) The global sanctions network is dominated by a limited number of countries and regions in the Global North, with the United States at the forefront. As China, India, and other countries and regions have gradually developed their capacity to leverage globalization and interdependence, the previously unidirectional and asymmetric relationship of sanctions between the Global North and Global South has slowly shifted to a complex and multipolar interactive dynamic. (4) The impacts of various international sanctions on the political stability, economic development, and social stability of target countries and regions have been confirmed. Notably, military and economic sanctions predominantly affect the countries and regions in the Global South without similarly impacting those in the Global North. Furthermore, the study identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic and social sanctions and gross national income and number of international refugees. Based on these insights, this study proposes strategic countermeasures for China to prevent and effectively respond to potential sanctions crises.