长江经济带电力碳排放时空变化及影响因素——基于区域和产业视角

The IPCC carbon inventory accounting method and network model were comprehensively used to quantify carbon emissions induced by power production, transmission, and consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020, and its spatio-temporal variation was analyzed from the region and industry perspectives. Besides, the LMDI method was applied to quantify the contributions of the economic and technological factors to changes in regional production and consumption side electricity-related carbon emissions. Results showed that the carbon emissions from power generation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt grew continually but with a declining growth rate. Specifically, the total amount increased from 680million tons to 1.225billion tons, and the average annual growth rate decreased from 7.61% from 2005 to 2011 to 1.28% from 2012 to 2020. The spatio-temporal characteristics of electricity-related carbon emissions from the consumption side were similar to those from the production side, but the carbon emissions embodied in the inter-provincial power transmission had grown continually during the research period. Among them, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had the largest net outflows of electricity-related carbon emissions, with net outflows of 18.94 million tons, 61.20 million tons and 70.21 million tons respectively in 2020. Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan had the largest net inflows of electricity-related carbon emissions, with net inflows of 27.24 million tons, 23.10 million tons, 10.76 million tons, 30.10 million tons and 22.19 million tons respectively in 2020. The consumption side carbon emissions in the downstream areas mainly came from the resource processing industry, machinery and electronic manufacturing industry, and light textile industry. Machinery and electronics manufacturing, textile, and service industries had the highest growth rate of the consumption side carbon emissions. The consumption side carbon emissions in the midstream and upstream areas were mainly driven by the electric power, heat production and supply industry, and resource processing industry. In the midstream and upstream areas, except Sichuan and Yunnan, the carbon emissions induced by the above industries have increased substantially. Power generation scale was the biggest factor promoting the growth of carbon emissions from the production side. On the contrary, coal consumption rate of power generation and power generation mix were the factors that inhibit its growth. Economic development and household consumption were the main factors to promote the growth of carbon emissions from the consumption side, while industrial power efficiency, carbon emission intensity of power consumed and industrial structure played a negative driving role.