长江经济带减污降碳的时空格局演变与技术创新驱动

The synergy of reduction of pollution and carbon emissions (RPCE) is a key strategic mission of China during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) period, and technological innovation is a key driving force to promote the synergy of RPCE. However, the majority of previous research has analyzed pollution reduction and carbon emissions reduction as two distinct issues, rarely integrating them into a unified framework for comprehensive consideration. In particular, there is a need for further investigation into the spatio-temporal synergies between pollution reduction and carbon emissions, as well as the driving effects of technological innovation. Based on the panel data of 108 cities above prefecture level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2003 to 2019, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban RPCE and the driving effect of technological innovation were explored. The results show that: (1) The level of RPCE in the YREB shows a "U"-shaped pattern from 2003 to 2019, and 2011 is a key inflection point; However, the specific time of inflection points in the upper, middle and lower reaches is different. After a brief descend, the level of RPCE in the lower reaches rose continuously after 2007, while the middle and upper reaches only entered a stable rising stage after 2013. (2) During the study period, there is no consistent change trend between pollution reduction and carbon reduction, among which the per capita industrial wastewater discharge, per capita industrial SO₂ discharge and PM_2.5 show a trend of first rising and then falling, while the per capita CO₂ emissions still maintain a fluctuating growth trend; (3) Technological innovation has significant local effect and spatial spillover effect on urban RPCE. Among them, there is an inverted "U" -shaped relationship between technological innovation and per capita industrial wastewater, per capita industrial SO₂, and per capita CO_2, which is significantly promoted first and then inhibited, while technological innovation only inhibits PM_2.5. Therefore, this paper suggested to improve the technological innovation capacity, especially the driving role of green technological innovation in RPCE, and at the same time, it is necessary to adjust measures to local conditions and strengthen the innovation synergy between cities in the YREB.