贵渝管道地质灾害驱动因子分析及危险性评价

The geohazards along the Guiyu pipeline are highly developed and seriously threaten the pipeline's safe operation. By taking geohazards along the Guiyu pipeline as the research object，a total of 13 driving factors are identified and categorized into five main categories，including predisposing，hydrological，vegetation，topographic and geologi⁃ cal conditions. The driving factors are analyzed for pipeline geohazard's main controlling factors and risk assessment. First⁃ ly，the noise factor is removed using the statistical method of Spearman correlation. The Geodetector model is then used to quantify the importance of each factor in the geohazards. The Support Vector Machine（SVM）model is applied for re⁃ cursive analysis to identify the factor after a steep drop in the Bier score as the main control factor. Finally，by using SVM models，the risk of pipeline geohazards is assessed. The results show that the main controlling factors of pipeline geohaz⁃ ards in the study area include eight factors as slope gradient，aspect，curvature，lithology，average annual rainfall，stream density and fracture zone density. The average annual rainfall and lithology factors are found to be the most signifi⁃ cant contributors to the development of geohazards，with a clear interaction observed between them.