美国武器出口的空间格局演化与地缘政治解析

The arms trade serves as a critical tool for the United States to advance its foreign policy objectives and secure its geopolitical interests. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of U.S. arms exports is essential to deciphering its strategic trajectory on the global stage. This study leverages data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Arms Transfers Database and employs a suite of robust analytical methods, including dependency modeling, Poisson regression, and dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). These methodologies provide a nuanced understanding of the spatial evolution of U.S. arms exports, the underlying factors shaping their patterns, and the geopolitical ramifications of these exports. By integrating these approaches, the study offers a comprehensive framework for analyzing how U.S. arms trade functions as a key instrument in its global strategic playbook. The results indicate the following developmental characteristics in the spatial pattern of U.S. arms exports: (1) The United States solidifies its position as the largest arms exporter, with significant growth in both export volume and its share of the global market. Its geo-military influence is expanding into regions traditionally aligned with Russia. A defining feature of U.S. arms exports is the diversity of its offerings, with military aircraft and missiles dominating, catering to both combat and deterrence needs. (2) U.S. arms exports are predominantly focused on the periphery of the Eurasian continent, including Western Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. The heavy reliance of importing nations on U. S. weaponry underscores America's strategy to curb the rise of global powers in Eurasia and uphold its global hegemony. (3) U. S. arms exports are positively influenced by factors such as oil production, resource endowments, political freedoms, democratic governance, military alliances, market size, and defense expenditures. However, defense cooperation with importing nations, involving sheltering mechanisms and deterrence strategies, often reduces the volume of U.S. arms exports. (4) The geopolitical objectives of U.S. arms exports focus on controlling key oil-producing countries to secure energy needs, expanding arms industry market share for economic and geopolitical gains, bolstering allies’military capabilities to counter strategic competitors, and sustaining military trade to reinforce alliances. The overarching goal is to influence regional security dynamics and maintain global hegemony by balancing power in strategic regions.