缅甸地缘环境变化与中缅印度洋新通道建设研究

Myanmar is a key neighbor for China and an important link in advancing the "Belt and Road" initiative, contributing to both domestic and international economic flows. Despite the border closures and restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the New China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor has seen substantial progress. However, this development has not garnered the attention it deserves, as both national and Yunnan provincial governments continue to prioritize the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). This oversight results from an incomplete understanding of the changes in Myanmar's geopolitical landscape since 2000. Using a framework for national geopolitical landscape analysis, this study examines Myanmar's basic national conditions, principal relationships, and inherent contradictions, revealing how Myanmar's geopolitical landscape has evolved due to the interplay of internal and external factors, cross-field interactions, and strategic games played by multiple geopolitical actors. Specifically, the study discusses the period from 2000 to 2010, characterized by external pressure and internal stability, and the years from 2011 to 2021, marked by external conflict and internal turmoil. The evolving geopolitical landscape in Myanmar has created favorable conditions for building the New China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor. From a geopolitical perspective, this paper explores the reasons behind the necessity of this new corridor and suggests a re-evaluation of China's spatial planning for major infrastructure projects in Myanmar given the country's shifting geopolitical context. The corridor's feasibility—whether measured by distance, time, costs, spatial distribution of domestic ethnic armed conflicts, or Myanmar's post-pandemic economic trends—suggests it is highly workable. In the short term, the new corridor can complement the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, progressing concurrently; in the long term, it could gradually replace it as the main route for China-Myanmar trade. This study not only enhances understanding of the New China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor but also provides a scientific rationale for its vigorous promotion.