约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘环境研究

Along with climate change, population growth and economic development, the contradiction between global water supply and demand had become increasingly prominent, and water conflicts on international rivers would occur more frequently. The Jordan River had been an international river on most serious conflicts in the world. The number of transboundary water conflicts on the river accounted for 1/5 of the global total between 1948 and 2008, what's more, the proportion of war-related transboundary water conflicts reached 2/3. A geo-setting analysis framework for international river transboundary water conflicts was provided, which was composed of the analysis of geo-value, geo-relationship and geo-structure. And it was used to study the geo-mechanism of the Jordan River transboundary water conflicts. The conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The geopolitical goals of the Jordan River transboundary water conflicts were concentrated in water-rich areas, from the major water resources areas to the less important ones, because Israel was scrambling for Jordan River water resources area. After Yom Kippur War, Arab countries started to claim Israel for its own territory rich in water resources in the Jordan River. (2) Israel, the core actor in the water conflicts, started nearly 60%of transboundary water conflicts on the Jordan River, Arab countries accounted for 20%, and non-riparian countries took the rest 20%. (3) It was the geo-value of the Jordan River Basin that attracted foreign powers to directly intervene, which escalated water conflicts and benefitted the United States and Israel. The geo-relationship between "water-rich areas" was stronger than that of "water quantity", which had a strengthening effect on the transboundary water conflicts on the Jordan River. Israel, as the hydro-hegemony of the Jordan River, dominated the geo-structure of the river even more, leading to spatial and temporal distribution pattern of the transboundary water conflicts in the basin.