环境规制对长三角城市绿色发展的影响——基于技术创新的作用路径分析

The relationship between environmental regulation and green development and its impact mechanism are complex and controversial. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2018, this paper first constructs a measurement index system to calculate the green development level and spatial dynamic evolution of each city. Secondly, using the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT), this paper constructs a panel measurement model to explore the impact of environmental regulation on urban green development. The results show that: (1) The level of environmental regulation and green development in the study area shows an upward trend, but there are significant regional differences. The level of green development has been in a stable pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, and the focus of environmental regulation intensity has experienced a spatial evolution from southeast to northwest. (2) On the whole, environmental regulation can affect urban green development significantly, and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between them, that is, excessive environmental regulation will inhibit the level of urban green development. (3) There is a close linkage between environmental regulation and technological innovation. Environmental regulation mainly affects urban green development through the intermediary path of technological innovation, in which the intermediary effect accounts for about 50.1% of the total effect. The research results can provide some enlightenment for promoting the integrated and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta. Local condition- based environmental regulation is the premise to improve the efficiency of urban green development, and pay attention to the promotion of the transformation of urban green development by improving the level of technological innovation.