新南向政策背景下台湾地区的航运转向及政策效应分析

The Taiwan region of China occupies a strategic position along a vital global shipping route, where its shipping direction plays an integral role. The“New Southbound Policy”put forward by Taiwan province seeks to shift its development strategy from a “westward”to a“southward”orientation, in an attempt to reduce its economic reliance on the Chinese mainland. Against this backdrop, it is imperative to explore the region's shipping reorientation and the effects of related policies. Against the backdrop of the“New Southbound Policy”, this paper systematically examines the evolution of foreign shipping links of Taiwan from 2011 to 2022. Employing an economic model coupled with a quasi-natural experiment methodology, this study delves into the causal effects of the“New Southbound Policy”and changes in shipping of Taiwan, exploring the actual impact of the policy on the transportation volume of different types of goods. The results show that: (1) The maritime shipping structure in the study area has remained largely stable. In terms of total trade volumes, Taiwan's strongest maritime trade links are with Australia, followed by several prominent Asian economies. Australia is the largest import market for the Taiwan region of China. The Chinese mainland serves as the largest export market for Taiwan. However, among the top 20 economies ranked by the significance of their maritime trade connections with Taiwan, only eight of the 18 economies covered by the “New Southbound Policy” are represented. (2) The “New Southbound Policy”has not significantly promoted shipping exchanges between Taiwan and “New Southbound”economies. A separate regression analysis of total maritime trade and industrial shipping types reveals that the“New Southbound Policy”has yielded a statistically significant positive effect only on bulk shipping. In contrast, total maritime trade volumes and container shipping have not been affected by this policy. (3) The regression results indicate that both trade openness and transportation capacity show significant positive effects among the factors influencing the bulk shipping connections between Taiwan and other economies. In contrast, the production capacity and liner connectivity indexes exhibit the opposite trend. Overall, the“New Southbound Policy”has not played a significant role in the overall bilateral trade in shipping between Taiwan and the“New Southbound”economies.