基于 FLUS 和 InVEST 模型的河南省氮素面源污染时空变化特征模拟及预测

To elucidate the characteristics of nitrogen non-point source pollution in Henan Province under the influence of climate change，this study initially utilized the InVEST model to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of the N non-point source pollution load in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020，subsequently coupling the FLUS model with the InVEST model，nitrogen point source pollution load，and its spatial distribution in Henan Province from 2030 to 2050 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The findings of the study indicated that：① Between 2000 and 2020，the total nitrogen output and load in Henan Province initially increased before decreasing，maintaining an overall downward trend. ② In terms of spatial distribution，the nitrogen output load from 2000 to 2020 displayed a pattern of “high in the plains，low in hilly areas,” indicating a strong correlation between nitrogen non-point source pollution and topography. ③ Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario，the total nitrogen output and load were projected to increase annually from 2030 to 2050，with a complex overall change pattern；under the SSP5-8.5 scenario，the total nitrogen output and load were anticipated to decrease initially before increasing，with a consistent overall change pattern. Based on these results and in conjunction with the practical situation of Henan Province，it is hoped that this research can provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of future non-point source pollution in the province.