基于混合损失超越曲线的省域气象灾害农业风险评估

In recent years, the recognition of the global disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy on high-frequency and low loss extensive disaster risk and the query on the effectiveness of continuously giving priority to the management and control of low-frequency and high loss intensive disaster risk at a local scale have caused disputes on the theory and practice of disaster risk management (DRM) among academic and emergency management stakeholders. Therefore, this study conducted an empirical study on the agricultural risk assessment of meteorological disasters based on the hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) in Shanxi Province, China. This paper identifies the characteristics of extensive and intensive meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province, demonstrating the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the HLEC replacing the retrospective loss exceedance curve and the prospective loss exceedance curve in measuring average annual agricultural economic loss (AAL). The following results are obtained: (1) The AAL of meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province is 2.22 billion Yuan, and the occurrence loss exceedance probability (OEP) for a single time exceeds 15 million Yuan, that is, the reserves of“meteorological disaster prevention and emergency management expenditure”for the whole year and the damaged counties and districts are not less than 2.22 billion Yuan and 15 million Yuan, respectively. (2) The HLEC model is effective in disaster risk assessment at the provincial level, and its applicability and efficiency at the prefecture-level city and county level are close to 60%. (3) More than 97% of the historical meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province are extensive disasters with high-frequency and low impact, resulting in more than 95% of the agricultural disaster areas and agricultural economic losses. The corresponding AAL and OEP account for more than 85%. The risk of extensive disasters is a real and cumulative risk in the province. Moreover, its consequences, such as poverty, welfare reduction, infectious diseases, and health deterioration, should attract the attention of DRR and DRM. Therefore, this study preliminarily confirmed the necessity of local or grassroots level to reduce the extensive risk (why to manage it), discussed the reasons for the lack of traditional emergency management and control of the extensive risk (dare not manage, cannot manage, and do not want to manage), and proposed the significance of timely response to the extensive risk and avoiding its cumulative socioeconomic impact (such as permanent poverty alleviation, high-quality urbanization, sustainable development). It is intended to provide the right direction for governments at all levels and emergency management departments to formulate DRR and DRM strategies and provide decision-making reference to improve the disaster resilience of cities, communities, and families.