后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究

Since most of the deaths and instability in today's world are caused by violent conflict events, and the combination of conflict space as territorial and network embeddedness remains at the conceptual level, it is of urgent practical and theoretical significance to reveal its spatio-temporal evolution and explore the interactive characteristics of conflict actors. In view of this, based on the conceptualization of conflict space, we built an "event-network" analysis framework, and comprehensively used kernel density estimation, trend surface and social network analysis methods to systematically analyze the "location-direction-form-relationship (network)" of violent conflicts in Afghanistan in different periods since the Post-Cold War. The study shows that: (1) Conflict is a complex system formed by the mismatch of human-territorial relations. The phased characteristics of the conflict in Afghanistan are closely related to the rise and fall of its geostrategic position and networks of actors, the obvious characteristics of "fighting season", and the predominance of low-intensity conflict. (2) The spatial pattern of conflict is coerced and restricted by topography and its direction. The Hindu Kush Mountains influence the conflict in Afghanistan, and the trend of the surface area is northeast-southwest, with the "point-line-area" feature gradually strengthening. The conflict space has an "O" shaped distribution pattern. (3) The power game and conflict are closely related to the characterization of "un-netting" and "netting" of actors. In Afghanistan, domestic actors tend to "un-net", with the Afghan government-Taliban constituting the core "relationship pair" in the internal conflict. The network of extraterritorial participants is "low", and there is no sign of community network interaction. The study captures how conflict space combines social networks and geographic contexts in order to understand the ways in which countries are internally involved in ongoing conflicts, revealing the spatial sociality of conflict generation, and is expected to deepen the understanding of the spatial mechanisms of in Afghanistan's "imperial graveyard".