中国流动人口跨城市行政等级迁移与迁入地选择

The administrative hierarchy of the city in China determines its ability of mobilizing resources and the direction of migrations, and it is also the direct subjects of policy implementation. Previous literature has rarely analyzed migrations from the perspective of urban administrative hierarchy. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study explores the patterns of migration across urban administrative hierarchy and the influencing factors of destination choice. The results show that according to the urban administrative hierarchy, upward migrations are dominant. Spatially, inter-regional migration to the eastern region is a prominent feature. For the population that has migrated multiple times, subsequent migrations are dominated by horizontal and intra-regional migrations, with the proportion of downward migrations increasing and exceeding that of upward migrations. In the first migration, ordinary prefecture cities and provincial capital cities are preferred. In the subsequent migrations, the proportions of county-level cities (counties), separately planned cities and directly-administered municipalities have increased, which reflect repositioning of population after the first migration. Economic profits are the main driving force of migration, the socio-economic attributes and hukou-registered places affect the choice of destinations, which reflect the migrants' employment competitiveness, employment preferences, life cycle and path dependence on hukou-registered places. The choice of destination is also related to the migration scope, provincial capital cities are being preferred in intra-provincial migrations, while directly-administered municipalities are most likely to be chosen in inter-provincial migrations. This paper provides evidence for the theory of population migration that urban administrative hierarchy works, which shows a different pattern from Ravenstein's laws of step migration, and deepens the connotation of push-pull theory. The findings of the study are of revelatory value for the implementation of the new urbanization policy with counties as important carriers.