中国县域城投债的时空分布及成因分析

The rapid expansion and accumulation of local government debt has become one of the critical and difficult issues affecting the sustainable development of regional economies and societies. Using economic and social attribute data such as county-level urban construction and investment bonds and public budget revenue and expenditure, this study employed methods such as spatial autocorrelation and Tobit model to investigate the spatio-temporal development characteristics and heterogeneous causes of public debt at the county level in China. The results show that: (1) From 2007 to 2020, the issuance amount of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level in China tended to expand, showing distinct characteristics of "policy debt" with obvious regional disparities and industry clusters. Throughout the study period, the distribution area of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level showed an expansion trend with clear spatial clustering characteristics, with hotspots and coldspots concentrated in the counties east of the Hu Huanyong Line. (2) Under the current local tax and levy system in China, grassroots financial operations in counties are facing challenges, among which fiscal pressure and development pressure are the key factors for the expansion of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level. (3) The proliferation mechanism of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level shows significant regional and sectoral differences. Fiscal pressure significantly encourages the proliferation of these bonds in underdeveloped districts, e.g. outside municipal jurisdictions and provincial capitals, development pressure particularly stimulates bond issuance in districts of the eastern region and districts within competitive urban clusters. Fiscal pressure has a negative impact on bond issuance in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, while development pressure favours bond issuance in the real estate and construction sectors. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the expansion of local government debt at the county level and serves as a reference for controlling the disorderly expansion of government debt at the county level and avoiding risks associated with local government debt.