中原城市群中心城市对周边经济的影响效应分析

Central cities, as drivers of regional economic development, have reemerged as a focal point of attention nowadays. However, their impact on the surrounding cities is inconsistent. Both positive and negative effects have been verified in different cases. One promising way to understand various impacts of central cities is to employ the dynamic lens. This paper focuses on the Central China Plains urban agglomeration, which developed and grew rapidly during the research period 2000-2020, and analyzes the dynamic impact of Zhengzhou on other small and medium-sized cities within the urban agglomeration (228 cities, counties, and county-level cities). The empirical analysis confirms that the role of central cities undergoes dynamic changes, and this case does not support the theoretical expectation of "siphoning first and then spilling over". Specifically, before 2005, there was no evidence of Zhengzhou's impact on the economic development of other cities in the Central China Plains urban agglomeration. Between 2005 and 2015, the evidence was inconsistent, hinting at a transitional phase between the two situations. After 2015, Zhengzhou mainly had a positive spillover effect on the development of cities within a certain geographical distance. The reasons for the aforementioned findings may lie in the fact that central cities, represented by Zhengzhou, focuses on attracting major resources from outside the province rather than within, and place great emphasis on and actively develop the manufacturing industry. Although a longer time period and evidence from more urban agglomerations are needed, the findings of this paper are a positive signal in favour of central city development strategies.