Use of disease embedding technique to predict the risk of progression to end-stage renal disease

The accurate prediction of progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) is of great importance to clinicians and a challenge to researchers as there are many causes and even more comorbidities that are ignored by the traditional prediction models. We examine whether utilizing a novel low-dimensional embedding model disease2disease (D2D) learned from a large-scale electronic health records (EHRs) could well clusters the causes of kidney diseases and comorbidities and further improve prediction of progression of CKD to ESRD compared to traditional risk factors. The study cohort consists of 2,507 hospitalized Stage 3 CKD patients of which 1,375 (54.8%) progressed to ESRD within 3 years. We evaluated the proposed unsupervised learning framework by applying a regularized logistic regression model and a cox proportional hazard model respectively, and compared the accuracies with the ones obtained by four alternative models. The results demonstrate that the learned low-dimensional disease representations from EHRs can capture the relationship between vast arrays of diseases, and can outperform traditional risk factors in a CKD progression prediction model. These results can be used both by clinicians in patient care and researchers to develop new prediction methods.