Urban Planning Scenarios Significantly Shape Future Urban Growth and Landscape Patterns in China’s Megacity, Shanghai

Urban growth prediction have been widely studied, yet systematic integration of real-world urban planning scenarios for projecting future urban expansion and assessing landscape pattern dynamics remains a critical gap. This study investigates how Shanghai’s Urban Master Plan influences urban growth using the SLEUTH model by incorporating multiple scenarios formulated according to the Master Plan, and analyzes the impacts of urban growth on the spatiotemporal patterns of landscape. The findings are as follows: (1) Significant future urban land area growth was projected across most scenarios, except under the strictest land use protection scenario. During the period from 2016 to 2060, under various urban planning scenarios for Shanghai, the net increase in urban land area ranged between 4.6 and 1843.8 km², with a corresponding growth rate ranging from 0.2 to 82.0%. The simulated urban land areas for different scenarios range from 4.6 km² to 1,843.8 km² over the period of 2016–2060, representing a growth rate of 0.2–82.0%. (2) The urban land area growth trajectory in mainland Shanghai conforms to a logistics curve in each scenario, demonstrating distinct stages of urbanization and their key characteristics, such as the speed and peak of urbanization, as well as their respective years of occurrence. (3) The urban land-use pattern tends to homogenize, characterized by increasing simplicity and uniformity. On the other hand, the farmland landscape pattern experiences continuous fragmentation and disaggregation due to the ongoing encroachment of urbanization. At the same time, as urban growth continues, the overall landscape becomes increasingly dominated and more aggregated by urban patches, while experiencing less fragmentation, complexity, and diversity, and more evenness. These findings can provide valuable insights for urban landscape planning and land use management in the cities worldwide.