TY - GEN
T1 - TSFM-Bench
T2 - 31st ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD 2025
AU - Li, Zhe
AU - Qiu, Xiangfei
AU - Chen, Peng
AU - Wang, Yihang
AU - Cheng, Hanyin
AU - Shu, Yang
AU - Hu, Jilin
AU - Guo, Chenjuan
AU - Zhou, Aoying
AU - Jensen, Christian S.
AU - Yang, Bin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).
PY - 2025/8/3
Y1 - 2025/8/3
N2 - Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and do not generalize well when applied in other domains. Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that are pre-trained on massive heterogeneous time series data aim to overcome these limitations. The prospects for generalizability have spurred the development of a new generation of TSFMs. This study proposes a benchmark, TSFM-Bench, to facilitate comprehensive and unified evaluation of TSFMs. TSFM-Bench covers a wide range of TSFMs, including those based on large language models and those pre-trained on time series data. TSFM-Bench supports multiple forecasting scenarios, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, enabling assessment across the full range of adaptation strategies. TSFM-Bench also provides a standardized experimental protocols for critical evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, facilitating consistency and fairness. We report on an extensive evaluation of TSFMs across a diverse range of datasets spanning multiple domains and exhibiting varied statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing TSFMs, and we propose potential directions for new model designs.
AB - Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and do not generalize well when applied in other domains. Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that are pre-trained on massive heterogeneous time series data aim to overcome these limitations. The prospects for generalizability have spurred the development of a new generation of TSFMs. This study proposes a benchmark, TSFM-Bench, to facilitate comprehensive and unified evaluation of TSFMs. TSFM-Bench covers a wide range of TSFMs, including those based on large language models and those pre-trained on time series data. TSFM-Bench supports multiple forecasting scenarios, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, enabling assessment across the full range of adaptation strategies. TSFM-Bench also provides a standardized experimental protocols for critical evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, facilitating consistency and fairness. We report on an extensive evaluation of TSFMs across a diverse range of datasets spanning multiple domains and exhibiting varied statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing TSFMs, and we propose potential directions for new model designs.
KW - benchmark
KW - foundation models
KW - time series forecasting
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105014411460
U2 - 10.1145/3711896.3737442
DO - 10.1145/3711896.3737442
M3 - 会议稿件
AN - SCOPUS:105014411460
T3 - Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
SP - 5595
EP - 5606
BT - KDD 2025 - Proceedings of the 31st ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
PB - Association for Computing Machinery
Y2 - 3 August 2025 through 7 August 2025
ER -