Trends in annual discharge from the Yangtze River to the sea (1865-2004)

Uninterrupted records of annual discharge from the Yangtze River to the sea (at Datong Hydrographical Station) began in the 1950s. This series shows no significant trend. However, at Hankou, a station upstream from Datong, annual discharges have been observed since 1865 almost without gaps. The annual discharges at Datong and Hankou were found to be closely correlated. Based on the regression equation, the missing annual discharges at Datong were estimated and a time series from 1865 to 2004 was established. Although the annual discharge has varied greatly, it shows a significant decreasing trend. The trendline revealed an 8.2% decrease from 1865 to 2004. The decrease in discharge was attributed to increases in water consumption and reservoir construction, while the interannual variations were related to climate variability. The decreasing trend in discharge is expected to continue in the coming decades due to human activities. This decreasing trend should be taken into account in the decision making on the South-to-North-Water Diversion projects.