The Russia-Ukraine war, energy poverty, and social conflict: An analysis based on global liquified natural gas maritime shipping

To understand the mechanisms behind the relationship between energy trade and conflict occurrence, this study employed automatic identification system (AIS) ship data as a proxy indicator for global liquified natural gas (LNG) flows and explored the temporal, spatial, and quantitative relationships between ship transportation and different conflict types in the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, energy prices soared, and the reduced activity of LNG transportation was highly correlated with temporary energy poverty and social conflicts. Low-income countries were more sensitive to changes in LNG transportation and more prone to high-intensity social conflicts. Coal can serve as an alternative energy source for mitigating the occurrence of highly violent conflicts; however, coal imports cannot fully replace LNG. This study clarifies the role of specialized energy sources in conflict and shows that the sustainable development goals for global clean energy may be overly idealistic.