The evolution of the global scientific collaboration network: A stochastic actor-oriented model approach

In the age of globalizing knowledge economy, inter-country scientific collaborations are more and more frequent. Therefore, the globalization and networking characteristics of scientific research activities are increasingly prominent. The scientific collaboration between two countries does not only rely on the bilateral relationship between, but also is influenced by the structural effects of the network itself. However, the endogenous structural effects are ignored in the literature on the evolution of knowledge network. Based on the internationally collaborative papers from the Clarivate Analytics' InCites database in the period 2000-2019, this study uses social network analysis and stochastic actor-oriented model to explore the structure, dynamics and determinants of global scientific collaboration network. Results show that the size of the network has expanded, the number of nodes and ties in the network has substantially increased, and the densification of the network has strengthened over time. Distinctive characteristics of the network is typically small-world nature and partially scale-free distribution, and there is a significant trend towards decentralization in the collaboration network. The whole network displays the co-existence of hierarchical“star-shaped”structure and heterarchical“universal”structure. China moves up from the periphery to the core, and the network is evolving from a single-center dominated by the United States to the double center including Sino-US, the bilateral partnership between China and the United States becomes the most importantly bilateral collaboration in the world. In addition, stochastic actor-oriented model indicates that transitivity and preferential attachment positively drive the evolution of scientific collaboration network. Geographical proximity and cognitive proximity have a positive and significant effect on the formation of international collaboration. The dynamic mechanism of the global scientific collaboration network is facilitated by country size. Meanwhile, common language, post-colonial links, and international students play an important role in the dynamics of global scientific collaboration network. Besides, we find that the effects of transitivity, geographical proximity, cognitive proximity and country size have increased, while the impact of preferential attachment has waned over time.