The evolution and situation assessment of geo-economic linkages intensity between countries outside the region and the surrounding regions of the South China Sea

With the gradual shift of the global economic center of gravity to the Asia-Pacific region and the increasingly close regional geo-economic linkages, the strategic position of the South China Sea has become increasingly prominent, and the surrounding regions of the South China Sea have become an important global strategic region and Asia's most important international geopolitical problem regions. Research methods of social network analysis and modified gravity models are applied to explore the evolution and trend of the geo-economic relationship between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea from the perspectives of trade, investment and tourism. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2019, the trade linkages between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea have become increasingly close, but the imbalance of trade cooperation is more prominent, and the intra-regional export trade network presents a relatively stable network structure with China as the core and Laos, Brunei and Cambodia as the periphery. (2) The investment scale of countries outside the region in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea has increased significantly, but the polarization of the investment scale is more obvious, and the investment location has shown a shift from high concentration to gradual diffusion. (3) The inbound tourism flow of countries outside the region continues to grow, the tourism network has evolved from a single core of China to a dual core network structure of China and Thailand, and tourism destinations have become increasingly diversified. (4) The strength of geo-economic linkages between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea has decreased, but generally, the strength of geo-economic linkages with the nine ASEAN countries has increased. Although the countries outside the region, represented by the United States and Japan, have gradually weakened their geo-economic linkages with China, the overall geo-economic linkages network still presents a network structure with China as the main core and Thailand and Singapore as the secondary cores.