The effect of land use planning (2006–2020) on construction land growth in China

Land use planning is a comprehensive instrument for managing non-agricultural land growth in China, and the evaluation of its implementation effect on growth control is of great significance for policy improvement. However, little empirical research has been done to estimate its implementation effect at the city level of the whole country. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of land use planning on construction land growth control at the city level in China. Taking 288 cities as the research object, an econometrics model was built to estimate the effect based on socioeconomic and land use data from 2006 to 2012. The results show that the implementation of land use planning has a certain effect in curbing the expansion of construction land, and that the incremental amount of construction land decreases by 107,449 ha due to the planning implementation. In addition, the implementation effect of land use planning presented significant differences among cities, which shows that there is a weaker effect in megacities and large cities than in medium-small cities. Besides, the implementation effect of land use planning also shows temporal differences: its effect is better in 2007–2009 than in 2010–2012. Furthermore, considering both planned goals and effectiveness, planning implementation is judged to be able to slow but not fully prevent the rapid expansion of construction land. Finally, to further improve efficiency and success, this research puts forward some suggestions such as improving the existing quota system, delineation of the urban development boundary and integrating the special plan system.