Salinity statistical model for Modaomen of Pearl River Estuary during dry season

As tide and runoff are two main dynamic factors of saltwater intrusion in estuary, a salinity statistical model for Modaomen during dry season was established using the least square fitting method, considering different effects of short-time scale tidal range variation and long-time scale runoff variation on saltwater intrusion. Then the model was further improved through filtering the runoff influence, and a revised salinity statistical model was developed. The comparison of measured values with calculated values of statistical models shows that both the salinity statistical model and the revised salinity statistical model can reflect the temporal variation of daily characteristic salinity in Modaomen of the Pearl River Estuary during the dry season. The relative error of mean salinity from the statistical model is about 23. 4%, while that of the revised one is about 2. 1%, indicating that the revised salinity statistical model has a higher precision, therefore it has better practicability.