Quantifying spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of water-energy-food coordination in the Yellow River Basin: A hybrid framework approach

Sustainable coordination of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) faces challenges due to complex terrain-climate-human interactions, with their coupling mechanisms underexplored. To address this issue, we developed an innovative hybrid framework integrating the Super-SBM model, game theory combination weighting based Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Random Forest, and PLS-SEM to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of WEF nexus across 53 YRB cities from 2003 to 2023. Our key findings reveal: (1) WEF efficiencies in the YRB remain low (WRUE = 0.57, EUE = 0.54, GPE = 0.79) with divergent trends—WRUE and EUE fluctuate, while GPE steadily improves. High-efficiency cities (e.g., Ordos, Yulin) contrast with low-efficiency ones (e.g., Xi'an, Zhengzhou), revealing spatial mismatches between resource endowment and functional roles. (2) The basin-wide WEF Nexus Coupling Coordination Degree (WEF-CCD) exhibits an inverted U-shaped trajectory (0.57 → 0.62→0.58) and, overall, reflects a marginal coordination level. While 51 % of cities show improvement, 49 % experience a decline, highlighting development pathways that are largely influenced by resource endowments. (3) PLS-SEM results, interpreted via the PSR framework, reveal spatially differentiated drivers: in the upstream, terrain-induced pressures dominate and constrain coordination (path coefficient = −1.24); in the midstream, terrain and erosion pose ongoing pressures, but warming temperatures improve state conditions and crop yields (+0.36), with terrain-climate interactions shaping human impacts; in the downstream, strong human pressures and effective responses—such as innovation—enhance WEF coordination (+0.48). Based on these insights, we propose a zoning-based governance strategy to align regional resources with targeted WEF management.