Prediction of Online Mathematics Test Efficiency Based on Stacked Integrated Models: A Case Study of NAEP Data

Chengliang Wang, Haoming Wang, Yutong Lai, Zihan Xiao, Xianlong Xu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This study based on data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in the United States, developed an online mathematics test efficiency prediction model using stacked ensemble learning. The research compared the performance of two machine learning algorithms—Random Forest and Gradient Boosting—and combined them to construct a stacked ensemble model. Through ten-fold cross-validation, the model achieved an average F1 score of 74.92% and a recall rate of 77.45%. Feature importance analysis based on SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) indicated that question type played a dominant role in predicting student test efficiency, while learning behavior features had a relatively small impact. This study innovatively integrated stacked ensemble learning with explainable artificial intelligence techniques, enhancing prediction accuracy while providing reliable support for educational decision-making.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationArtificial Intelligence in Education. Posters and Late Breaking Results, Workshops and Tutorials, Industry and Innovation Tracks, Practitioners, Doctoral Consortium, Blue Sky, and WideAIED - 26th International Conference, AIED 2025, Proceedings
EditorsAlexandra I. Cristea, Erin Walker, Yu Lu, Olga C. Santos, Seiji Isotani
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages221-229
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9783031992605
DOIs
StatePublished - 2025
EventPoster papers and late breaking results, workshops and tutorials, practitioners, industry and policy track, doctoral consortium, blue sky and wideAIED papers presented at the 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Education, AIED 2025 - Palermo, Italy
Duration: 22 Jul 202526 Jul 2025

Publication series

NameCommunications in Computer and Information Science
Volume2590 CCIS
ISSN (Print)1865-0929
ISSN (Electronic)1865-0937

Conference

ConferencePoster papers and late breaking results, workshops and tutorials, practitioners, industry and policy track, doctoral consortium, blue sky and wideAIED papers presented at the 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Education, AIED 2025
Country/TerritoryItaly
CityPalermo
Period22/07/2526/07/25

Keywords

  • Explainable Artificial Intelligence
  • Online Mathematics Test
  • SHAP
  • Stacked Integrated Model
  • Student Efficiency Prediction

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