Potential impact of seasonal temperature increase pattern on the succession of coniferous-broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest in Xiaoxing' an Mountain

With LINKAGES model, a simulation prediction was made on the future succession process of coniferous-broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest in Xiaoxing' an Mountain under different seasonal temperature increase patterns. The future getting-warmer climate was assumed as a 5 °C increase of monthly mean temperature and an unobvious change of precipitation. Three climate change patterns were designed, i. e., temperature increasing range was greater in winter than in summer, the same in the two seasons, and greater in summer than in winter. The simulation results indicated that when the temperature increasing range was greater in winter than in summer, the succession of the present stand in Xiaoxing' an Mountain was relatively least affected by temperature increase, and the tree species composition still remained a relatively stable coniferous-broadleaved forest state. On the contrary, when the temperature increasing range was greater in summer than in winter, the succession of present stand was most significantly affected by temperature increase, and the tree species degenerated fastest. It could be concluded that there was a close relationship between the succession of coniferous-broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest in Xiaoxing' an Mountain and the future climate change patterns. The maximum temperature could be the key factor determining the viability of the present tree species.