Modelling and validation of flash flood inundation in drylands

In the context of climate change and human activities, flood disasters in arid mountainous areas have become increasingly frequent, and seriously threatened the safety of people’s lives and property. Rapid and accurate flash flood inundation modelling is an essential foundational research area, which can aid in the reduction of casualties and the minimization of disaster losses; however, this modelling is also very difficult, and models need to be urgently developed to address flash flood forecasting and warnings. The objective of this study is to construct a numerical modelling method for flash floods in drylands. Based on a 2D high-resolution flood numerical model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D), we hindcasted the dynamic process of flash flooding and show the spatio-temporal characteristics of flash flood inundation for the “8½18” flash flood disaster that occurred in Datong county, Qinghai province. The results showed that the model output effectively agreed with the observed inundation after the event in terms of both spatial extent and temporal process. Extensive flooding mainly occurred between 00:00 and 01:00 on August 18, 2022. Qingshan, Hejiazhuang and Longwo villages were affected most heavily. We further conducted model sensitivity analysis and found that the model was highly sensitive to both roughness and hydraulic conductivity in drylands, and the effect of hydraulic conductivity was more pronounced. Our study confirmed the good performance of our model for the simulation of flash flooding in arid areas and provides a potential method for flash flood assessment and management in arid areas.