Mapping Priority Havens: Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Predator Dynamics on Sea Turtle Nesting Patterns

Aims: Understanding broad-scale ecological responses to global change is essential for investigating and conserving biodiversity. Sea turtles, with their ancient evolutionary history and global distribution, serve as an ideal model for understanding these ecological responses. Facing complex threats from climate change and biotic interactions, their nesting suitability patterns remain incompletely evaluated. Location: Global coastlines. Methods: We compiled a comprehensive dataset on global sea turtle nesting occurrences and associated predator distributions to predict sea turtle nesting suitability using predator-constrained modelling. Next, we conducted geospatial analyses to identify conservation priorities for nesting habitats at species-specific, continental and national scales. Results: Climate and vegetation cover were primary drivers of interspecific variation in nesting suitability, while predation pressure strongly influenced spatial nesting patterns. Leatherback Turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) and Olive Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) were identified as the most vulnerable species in the future, with an average loss of suitable nesting habitat of 13.97% and 15.31%, respectively. Key countries requiring high conservation attention include Australia, the USA, Madagascar, Greece, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and India. Main Conclusions: Sea turtle nesting habitats are increasingly threatened by the combined impacts of climate change and predation. Our study highlights the urgent need for a multifaceted conservation framework—integrating species-specific protections, regional management and national cooperation—to preserve critical nesting refugia, thereby supporting global biodiversity target 3 under the Post-2020 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (30% habitat protection by 2030).