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LSTM-based Price Prediction and Dynamic Risk Management in Decentralized Blockchain Protocol

  • Jinyan Song
  • , Zhenfu Cao*
  • , Jiachen Shen*
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • East China Normal University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This study investigates Bitcoin price prediction and dynamic risk management strategies within decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models. The research demonstrates that the LSTM model effectively captures Bitcoin's general price trends and short-term fluctuations under typical market conditions. However, during periods of extreme volatility, the prediction model exhibits notable lag and reduced amplitude in capturing abrupt price changes, highlighting its limitations when relying solely on historical price data. Furthermore, this paper proposes a dynamic collateral ratio adjustment mechanism based on predicted price deviations, aimed at mitigating liquidation risks in DeFi lending protocols. Dynamically adjusting collateral ratios has the potential to substantially improve protocol stability compared to traditional static collateral frameworks.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2025 4th International Symposium on Computer Applications and Information Technology, ISCAIT 2025
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages355-358
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9798331542856
DOIs
StatePublished - 2025
Event4th International Symposium on Computer Applications and Information Technology, ISCAIT 2025 - Xi'an, China
Duration: 21 Mar 202523 Mar 2025

Publication series

Name2025 4th International Symposium on Computer Applications and Information Technology, ISCAIT 2025

Conference

Conference4th International Symposium on Computer Applications and Information Technology, ISCAIT 2025
Country/TerritoryChina
CityXi'an
Period21/03/2523/03/25

Keywords

  • LSTM
  • Machine Learning
  • blockchain
  • stablecoin

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